New Paper on Spring Phenology Forecast Challenge

Our paper from the Ecological Forecasting Initiative spring phenology forecast challenge was recently published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. It is available open access at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192323005002. Paper highlights include: (1) We held a community forecast challenge to predict daily plant greenness through which we submitted forecasts from 18 models. (2) Forecast skill was highest when forecasting earlier in the greenup period compared to the end. (3) Forecasts were worst when submitted right before budburst. (4) Historical means of greenness on each day of year were difficult to outperform.